Hi everyone, welcome back to Minuteman’s Update! Today, we are discussing the ongoing war in Iran.

On Feb. 28, 2026, the United States and Israel struck numerous locations in the Middle East, including Tehran and Beirut. In response, Iran struck on U.S. bases in Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and other Middle East bases. As of Mar. 11, this conflict is ongoing, with no signs of stoppage from the U.S, Iran, or Israel.

Previously, on Dec. 2025, protests broke out in Iran against the Islamic Regime. Millions of Iranians gathered in major cities to protest the oppressive government and its longtime leader, Ali Khamenei. Despite rumors that President Trump was planning on putting down the protests using military force, they ended without foreign military intervention. Last week, bombs dropped by the United States government killed the Supreme Leader Khamenei, his wife, and much of his extended family. His son, Mojtaba Khamenei, has been named the new Supreme Leader. The United States and Israel have promised regime change in Iran, but it is unclear as of today what that could look like. Secretary Hegseth and President Trump have both promised they will be pursuing the conflict in Iran with the utmost force. Hegseth claims Iran has little to no regard for international law and will move forward with constant military intervention. While Iran has a strong military, it is a desperately weak country economically and socially, and one that certainly cannot sustain an active conflict with the United States for more than a few years. 

Much of this economic and social insecurity is due to crippling United States sanctions on Iranian oil. Iran historically has been a top-ten producer of oil, holding around 12% of the world’s oil reserves and producing about 4.5%. While this should make it one of the wealthiest nations in the world, it remains relatively poor with little social mobility or growth. Following the 1979 revolution, the United States government placed crippling sanctions on Iranian oil and business in response to the Iranian government pulling out of long-time oil contracts.  Until 2022, Iran was the most sanctioned state in the world, surpassed only by Russia following the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. These sanctions have reduced Iranian oil exports to 60-80% at times, decimating Iranian business exports and trade opportunities. Socially, Iran remains a deeply repressed state, operating as a theocratic regime for 55 years. This regime has brought on not only repression for women and minority groups, but also often brought Iran under fire in the global media. Despite this, Iran remains one of the strongest armed nations in the world. Possessing the seventh largest military in the world, Iran is often accused of building nuclear weapons or posing a threat to national security. Nonetheless, I believe that the social and economic insecurity of Iran outweighs its military strength. Lacking both internal and global support, Iran does not have sufficient backing to maintain an ongoing conflict with both the United States and Israel. Currently, I do not believe that Russia or China will intervene to support Iran, but the future of this situation remains unclear.

For Lexington High School students, staying informed is key. As always with looming threats in the Middle East, fear can seem like the only option, but remember to read, listen to the Iranian people, and be willing to change your opinion. We live in one of the most educated school districts in the country, yet sometimes it seems we are surrounded by ignorance. Staying up to date, talking to those who know more than you, and retaining empathy are my biggest pieces of advice!

Thank you for reading. I hope there is a positive development by the next issue!